Global Environmental Problems

Spring 2006

Problem Set #4

Due: 1 March

1.

In chapter II of Harte, read problem 22 ("Exhausting Fossil Fuel Resources (II)"). Redo Harte's calculation for oil and do exercise 1, using the recent consumption rates you calculated in problem set 1 and the growth rates you calculated in problem set 2, and assuming that the "estimated stocks" given in Appendix VII.2 are the remaining stocks. Compare your answers to those from problem set #2.

2.

Read the article by Evar D. Nering, "The Mirage of a Growing Fuel Supply," New York Times, 4 June 2001.

A.

We did the calculation in the second paragraph in class (how long will a 100-y supply last if consumption is increasing 5%/y). Reproduce the calculations in the third and fourth paragraphs (i.e., a 1,000-y supply, a 10,000-y supply).

B.

EXTRA CREDIT: Confirm Nering's assertion in the seventh paragraph (i.e., that doubling the supply is not as effective as halving the growth rate, and that doubling the supply will increase its life expectancy by no more than 14 years if growth is constant).

Update the calculation given in class for the amount of gasoline that would be saved over a 20-year period by increasing the average fuel-efficiency of passenger vehicles, using National Transportation Statistics 2005. Vehicles subject to the federal Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standard are passenger cars (see table 4-11) and light trucks (vans, SUVs, and pickup trucks; see table 4-12).

A.

Find the total vehicle-miles traveled (VMT) and the total gasoline consumed by passenger vehicles in 1994 and 2004.

B.

Use the results in part A to find the average fuel efficiency in miles per gallon, as well as in liters per 100 kilometers (the units used in the rest of the word).

C.

Assuming that VMT remained constant at the 2004 level, how much gasoline would be saved over a 20-year period if the average fuel efficiency increased by 5 miles per gallon?