INTELLIGENCE POLICY AND ORGANIZATION

PUAF 698N, Fall 2006

Thursday 4:15- 6:45pm, Room 1203 Van Munching Hall

 

 

Prof. William Lahneman

Lahneman@umd.edu

Phone:  410-704-2581

Fax:      410-704-2960

Office Hours: Thursday 2-4pm or by appointment

 

 

 

 

Course Description

 

The course examines the principal roles of intelligence in national policy formulation, in the provision of strategic and tactical warning, in providing support for military operations, and in covert action.  Emphasis is placed on the problems inherent in conducting intelligence in a democracy and on the ethical considerations associated with providing high quality intelligence analysis.

 

The course describes how the structure of the U.S. intelligence community has evolved since World War II, the various problems and scandals that have surfaced, and the actions that have been taken to correct deficiencies and improve performance.  Special attention is given to the findings of the 9/11 Commission Report, the Report on the U.S. Intelligence Community’s Prewar Intelligence Assessments on Iraq, and the Report to the President of the United States by the Commission on the Intelligence Capabilities of the United States Regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction.

 

The final part of the course focuses on future directions for intelligence policy.  The intelligence cycle is investigated against the backdrop of emerging tools, trends and threats, including advances in information technology, the open source revolution, the ongoing process of globalization, transnational terrorism, and U.S. homeland security requirements.

 

 

Course Design

 

The course is designed to educate the student about intelligence and the U.S. intelligence community through appropriate reading assignments, lectures, class discussions, guest speakers, and class assignments requiring the use of analytic techniques.

 

Reading Assignments:  The course will employ two texts:

 

  1. Mark M. Lowenthal, Intelligence: From Secrets to Policy 3rd ed. (Washington, D.C.:  CQ Press, 2006)

 

  1. Loch K. Johnson & James J. Wirtz, Strategic Intelligence:  Windows Into a Secret World – An Anthology (Los Angeles, CA: Roxbury Publishing Company, 2004)

 

The texts have been supplemented by readings from journals, conference proceedings, commission reports, and other sources.  When not available via the Internet, electronic copies of readings will be posted on Blackboard.

 

Due to their length, students are encouraged to start reading the following works early in the course in order to complete them by the assigned dates.

 

 

 

  • Report to the President of the United States, The Commission on the Intelligence Capabilities of the United States Regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction (31 March 2005) (http://www.wmd.gov/report/)

 

 

 

Midterm and Final Exams:  There will be two written exams. The first exam will be an in-class, closed book exam designed to test basic knowledge about intelligence and the U.S intelligence community.  The final exam will be an open book, take home exam in the form of an analytic report.

 

Research Paper and Class Presentation:  Each student will write an original research paper dealing with some aspect of the intelligence enterprise.  Students will complete this assignment in four steps.  First, they will submit their proposed topic.  Second, they will submit an annotated bibliography. Third, they will submit their completed paper.  Fourth, each student will present their findings.  Due dates are as follows:

  1. Topic                                       Thursday, 5 October
  2. Annotated bibliography Thursday, 26 October
  3. Submit paper                Thursday, 9 November
  4. Presentations                Thursday, 9 and 16 November

Students will submit topics, annotated bibliographies, and research papers via Blackboard.

 

Papers will be 15-20 double-spaced pages in length, will use Times New Roman, 12 pt. font, and will have 1 inch margins.  Students will use footnotes (not endnotes or parenthetical notation) to document their sources, and will include a bibliography (does not count toward the 15-20 page limit).  Students must use a minimum of ten references from scholarly journals, books, or “official” websites.  Annotations from newspapers, blogs, or Wikipedia/encyclopedia sites do not count toward the ten reference limit.

 

 

Academic Integrity

 

The University of Maryland, College Park has a nationally recognized Code of Academic Integrity, administered by the Student Honor Council.  This Code sets standards for academic integrity at Maryland for all undergraduate and graduate students.  As a student you are responsible for upholding these standards for this course.  It is very important for you to be aware of the consequences of cheating, fabrication, facilitation, and plagiarism.  For more information on the Code of Academic Integrity or the Student Honor Council, please visit http://www.shc.umd.edu.
 
To further exhibit your commitment to academic integrity, remember to sign the Honor Pledge on all examinations and assignments: "I pledge on my honor that I have not given or received any unauthorized assistance on this examination (assignment)."

 

 

Grading Criteria

 

Midterm Exam                                                              20%

Annotated Bibliography                                                            10%

Research Paper:                                                                       30%

Research Paper Presentation:                                                      5%

Final Exam                                                                               25%

Class Participation                                                                    10%

 

 

Schedule of Classes and Reading Assignments

 

31 August                   Course Overview and Introduction

 

 

7 September               The U.S. Intelligence Enterprise

 

            Reading Assignment:

Lowenthal Chapters 1 & 3

Members of the Intelligence Community (http://www.intelligence.gov/1-members.shtml)

Factbook on Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency publication (https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/facttell/textonly.htm)

 

 

14 September             Intelligence Analysis and the Intelligence Cycle

 

Reading Assignment:

Lowenthal Chapters 4, 5, 6, 7, & 8

Johnson & Wirtz 4, 5, 6, 7 & 9

 

 

21 September             Film and Discussion:  “The Man Who Knew”

 

            Reading Assignment:

Lowenthal 12

Johnson & Wirtz 2 & 3

 

 

28 September             Intelligence and Democracy

 

            Reading Assignment:

Lowenthal Chapters 10 & 13

Johnson & Wirtz 22, 27, 28, 29, & 30

William J. Lahneman, “Problems of U.S. Intelligence Performance Prior to 9/11 and Attempts at Reform,” in Thomas Bruneau, Ed., Intelligence and Democracy (Austin, TX:  University of Texas Press, forthcoming 2007).

Steven Lukes, “Liberal Democratic Torture,” British Journal of Political Science, 36/1 (January 2006):  1-16 (http://journals.cambridge.org/download.php?file=%2FJPS%2FJPS36_01%2FS0007123406000019a.pdf&code=ff44c2e6f664ca03533e435a6523a1b7).

 

 

5 October                    Research Paper Topics Due (submit via Blackboard)

                                    The Client-Analyst Relationship

 

            Reading Assignment:

Lowenthal Chapter 9

Johnson & Wirtz 10, 11 & 18

Jack Davis, “Tensions in Analyst-Policymaker Relations:  Opinions, Facts, and Evidence,” Kent Center Occasional Papers 2/2 (January 2003)

http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/Kent_Papers/vol2no2.htm

Jack Davis, “Improving CIA Analytic Performance:  Analysts and the Policymaking Process,” Kent Center Occasional Papers 1/2 (September 2002) http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/Kent_Papers/vol1no2.html

 

 

12 October                  I.  Midterm Examination

                                    II.  Guest Speaker

 

 

19 October                  History of the U.S. Intelligence Community

 

Reading Assignment:

Lowenthal Chapters 2, 11, 12 & Appendix 2

Johnson & Wirtz 1, 12 & 13.

 

 

26 October                  Annotated Bibliography Due (submit via Blackboard)

Recent “Intelligence Failures”

 

            Reading Assignment:

The 9/11 Commission Report:  Final Report of the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States (New York:  W. W. Norton & Co., 2004) (http://www.gpoaccess.gov/911/)

Report on the U.S. Intelligence Community’s Prewar Intelligence Assessments on Iraq (http://www.gpoaccess.gov/serialset/creports/iraq.html)

Report to the President of the United States, The Commission on the Intelligence Capabilities of the United States Regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction.  (31 March 2005) (http://www.wmd.gov/report/)

 

 

2 November                Class Simulation:  The Intelligence Cycle and Principles of Analytic Tradecraft

 

            Reading Assignment

            Johnson & Wirtz 8 & 19.

IC Analytic Competency Framework (handout)

Robert Jervis, “The Politics and Psychology of Intelligence and Intelligence Reform,”  The Forum 4/1 (2006).

Richard K. Betts, “The New Politics of Intelligence:  Will Reforms Work This Time?” Foreign Affairs 83/3 (May/June 2004):  2-8. http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20040501facomment83301/richard-k-betts/the-new-politics-of-intelligence-will-reforms-work-this-time.html

 

 

9 November                Research Papers Due (submit via Blackboard)

Student Presentations I

 

 

16 November              Student Presentations II

 

 

23 November  NO CLASS – THANKSGIVING BREAK

________________________________________________________________________

 

30 November              Intelligence Reform Issues

 

            Reading Assignment:

Lowenthal 14.

Summary of Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act of 2004, United States Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs, December 6, 2004. http://www.fas.org/irp/congress/2004_rpt/s2845-summ.pdf

William J. Lahneman, ed.  The Future of Intelligence Analysis, Volume 1: Final Report.  A Report for the Assistant Director of National Intelligence for Education and Training (10 March 2006).  Available at www.cissm.umd.edu.

National Intelligence Strategy of the United States of America: Transformation Through Integration and Innovation, October 2005 (http://www.dni.gov/NISOctober2005.pdf).

 

 

7 December                Homeland Security and the Emerging Security Environment:  An Impending “Revolution in Intelligence Affairs?”

 

            Reading Assignment:

William J. Lahneman, “Testing the Proposition that a Revolution in Intelligence Affairs is Occurring,”  paper presented at the International Studies Association Annual Convention, San Diego, CA, 22-25 March 2006.

Mapping the Global Future: Report of the National Intelligence Council’s 2020 Project Based on Consultations With Nongovernment Experts Around the World, National Intelligence Council, December 2004. http://www.foia.cia.gov/2020/2020.pdf

 

 

TBD                            Final Exam

For Further Reading & Research

 

NOTE:  An annotated bibliography listing recent references dealing with intelligence reform is available at:

 

Lahneman, William J., ed.  The Future of Intelligence Analysis, Volume 2:  Annotated Bibliography  A Report for the Assistant Director of National Intelligence for Education and Training (10 March 2006).  Available at www.cissm.umd.edu.

 

Other publications:

Agrell, Wilhelm. “When Everything Is Intelligence – Nothing Is Intelligence.” Kent Center Occasional Papers 1/4 (October 2002) http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/Kent_Papers/vol1no4.htm

Barger, Deborah G.  “It Is Time to Transform, Not Reform, U.S. Intelligence,” SAIS Review XXIV no. 1 (Winter-Spring 2004): 23-31. http://www.saisreview.org/PDF/24.1barger.pdf

Best, Richard A., Jr.  Intelligence Issues for Congress.  (15 September 2005)  CRS Issue Brief for Congress

_____.  The National Intelligence Director and Intelligence Analysis, Congressional Research Service Report for Congress, September 30, 2004. http://www.fas.org/irp/crs/RS21948.pdf

Cooper, Jeffrey R.  Curing Analytic Pathologies:  Pathways to Improved Intelligence Analysis (Center for the Study of Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency (December 2005)

Davis, Jack. “Improving CIA Analytic Performance:  DI Analytic Priorities.” Kent Center Occasional Papers 1/3 (September 2002) http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/Kent_Papers/vol1no3.html

_____.  “Improving CIA Analytic Performance:  Strategic Warning.” Kent Center Occasional Papers 1/1 (September 2002) http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/Kent_Papers/vol1no1.html

_____. “Sherman Kent and the Profession of Intelligence Analysis.” Kent Center Occasional Papers 1/5 (November 2002) http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/Kent_Papers/vol1no5.htm

_____. “Strategic Warning:  If Surprise Is Inevitable, What Role for Analysts?” Kent Center Occasional Papers 2/1 (January 2003) http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/Kent_Papers/vol2no1.htm

Global Humanitarian Emergencies:  Trends and Projections, 1999-2000, National Intelligence Council, August 1999.

Global Trends 2015:  A Dialogue About the Future With Nongovernment Experts, National Intelligence Council, December 2000 http://www.cia.gov/cia/reports/globaltrends2015/globaltrends2015.pdf

Heuer, Richards J.  Psychology of Intelligence Analysis (Center for the Study of Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency (1999).

Johnson, Rob.  Analytic Culture in the U.S. Intelligence Community: An Ethnographic Study (Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 2005)

Intelligence and Analysis on Iraq:  Issues for the Intelligence Community (29 July 2004)  Kerr Group Reports

Intelligence and Policy:  The Evolving Relationship, Roundtable Report, Center for the Study of Intelligence, June 2004 http://www.cia.gov/csi/books/Roundtable_june2004/IntelandPolicyRelationship_Internet.pdf

Lahneman, William J.  “Knowledge Sharing in the Intelligence Community Since 9/11,”  International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence 17/4 (Winter 2004-2005): 614-633.

_____.  “Outsourcing the IC’s Stovepipes?” International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence 16/4 (Winter 2003-2004): 573-593.

Lowenthal, Mark M. “The Role of Intelligence in the United States Today,” remarks at a Potomac Institute Seminar on the Revolution in Intelligence Affairs:  Transforming Intelligence for Emerging Challenges, 15 September 2003 (http://www.intelligence.gov/0-role_intell.shtml)

Mahle, Melissa Boyle.  Denial and Deception: An Insider’s View of the CIA From Iran-Contra to 9/11 (2004)

Moore, David T.  Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis, Occasional Paper #19 (Washington, D.C.:  Joint Military Intelligence College, May 2006).

Nolte, William. “Keeping Pace With the Revolution in Intelligence Affairs,” Studies in Intelligence, 48/1 (2004): 1-10. http://www.cia.gov/csi/studies/vol48no1/article01.html

Posner, Richard A.  Preventing Surprise Attacks: Intelligence Reform in the Wake of 9/11 (Lanham, Maryland: Rowman and Littlefield Publishers, 2005).

Protecting America’s Freedom in the Information Age, A Report of the Markle Foundation Task Force (October 2002) (http://www.markle.org/markle_programs/policy_for_a_networked_society/national_security/projects/taskforce_national_security.php#report2)

The Next Wave of HIV/AIDS:  Nigeria, Ethiopia, Russia, India, and China, Intelligence Community Assessment, National Intelligence Council, September 2002. http://www.cia.gov/nic/PDF_GIF_otherprod/HIVAIDS/ICA_HIVAIDS20092302.pdf

Tracking the Dragon:  National Intelligence Estimates on China During the Era of Mao, 1948-1976 , National Intelligence Council, October 2004, Introduction & pp. 69-80. http://www.cia.gov/nic/foia_china_intro_eng.html

Treverton, Gregory F.  RAND Occasional Paper:  The Next Steps in Reshaping Intelligence (15 October 2005). (http://www.rand.org/pubs/occasional_papers/OP152/index.html)

Turner, Stansfield.  Burn Before Reading: Presidents, CIA Directors, and Secret Intelligence (Hyperion,2005).